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Euro Zone GDP Contracts Further


The 17-nation euro zone output shrank by 0.2 percent in the first quarter 2013 creating the longest recession in the bloc’s history. Projections for the future are not promising. Analysts project slight growth in late 2013 but no significant upturn until 2015. The first quarter contraction marks the sixth consecutive quarter that euro zone GDP has contracted.

France which has been teetering on the edge of a recession finally crossed the line and suffered a 0.2 percent downturn, equaling its output in the fourth quarter 2012. Unemployment in France is at record levels.

France joined the list of euro zone economies in recessions. Finland, Cyprus, Italy, The Netherlands, Portugal, Greece and Spain are solidly entrenched in recessions. Italy and Spain, the euro zone’s third and fourth largest euro zone economies, have endured seven consecutive quarters of negative growth.

The new data pushed the euro below the 1.29USD mark. The currency fell to six-week lows and shows little hope for recovery. The trend of the euro and the anemic growth in the bloc may prompt the ECB to engage in more aggressive monetary easing initiatives.

Last week, the ECB cut interest rates to historic lows. However, Mario Draghi, ECB president, has said that he is not opposed to another rate cut.

Austerity vs. Growth

To a degree, German led calls for austerity have stabilized the euro zone treaty. But, most of the nations want to shift the focus to growth. Euro zone unemployment is estimated to include more than 19 million workers.

The consensus is that the natives of the euro zone have been pushed about as far as they can go. France has been an advocate for growth and has marked the formation of a Europe-wide banking supervisor as an important step in the region’s recovery. German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble and Chancellor Angela Merkel have opposed this new initiative fearing that Germany would have to bear the heavy load.

On Tuesday, Schaeuble appeared to soften his position, suggesting that the new, broader banking union could be structured by June. A second aspect of this initiative would call for identification of banks that need to be closed. Schaeuble told French finance minister Pierre Moscovici that the new banking union was a “priority object.”

Germany, always the pillar of the euro zone, is facing its own manufacturing, export and GDP problems. GDP was revised from negative 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter 2012 to 0.7 percent. Germany narrowly avoided falling into recession by posting a 0.1 percent gain in the first quarter 2013. Despite its tempered growth, Germany enjoys the lowest unemployment rate in years.

Liquidity Driving Equity Markets

The euro is off 2.3 percent in May, hitting 1.2883USD in overnight trading. The dollar rests comfortably in the 102 range against the yen. The ECB is likely to consider another rate cut before the end of the year. The dollar reached 102.63 yen overnight.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan continue to pour money into easing programs. The weak yen is very liable to cause more export stress in Europe.

The UK has been damaged by the weaker euro and the stronger pound. UK exports have lowered to Europe but have increased to other markets like Southeast Asia and Africa. Outgoing Bank of England head, Mervyn King hinted that the BoE may be softening its easing program shortly. King put forth the first positive outlook for the UK since the outset of the financial crisis. Britain has been successful encouraging small business growth but still fights high unemployment and a slumping housing market.

All eyes will be on Italy’s upcoming 30-year bond auction after Spain had a successful 10 billion euro sale of its 10-year bonds on Tuesday. After Fitch Ratings upgraded the nation’s sovereign debt, a positive accomplishment, Greece’s 10-year bonds surged in Wednesday’s auction. Greece is no longer viewed as a country about to leave the euro zone, a credit to the tough love imposed by Germany.

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Greece Wins For Now


Late Monday night, euro zone finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reached an agreement that gives Greece more breathing room than expected. The agreement came after weeks of tense negotiations and for the time being appears to have thwarted the possibility of an unstructured default by Greece.

Greece’s Prime Minister, Antonis Samaras, was quick to applaud the deal and promised that “a new day for Greece” will commence on Tuesday. Greece has endured stern austerity cuts and has been unable to realize full value on several asset sales. The agreement has both short and long-term consequences for the ailing economy that has suffered seven recessions in recent years.

The central stipulation of the deal is that lenders agreed to reduce Greek debt by more than 40 billion euros, which should cut the sovereign debt to 124 percent of GDP by 2020. By 2022, Greek debt could fall to 110 percent of GDP if the finance ministers take the actions they agreed to on Monday.

2016 Could Provide First Budget Surplus

The 2022 goal reflects what many analysts project as an inevitable write-off of obligations due in 2016. It is in this year that Greece is projected to achieve its first primary budget surplus in many years. The idea of a projected write-off may be a stumbling block when the deal is presented to the Finnish, German and Dutch parliaments. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has already asked the German Parliament to consider the deal.

The entire agreement is scheduled to be approved and signed on December 16, 2012. Several international leaders praised Greece for its austerity measures, but there are serious questions about how the ailing nation can regain its economic footing.

Zero Interest for 10 Years

Among the terms of the agreement, finance ministers agreed to trim interest rates on sovereign debt loans and extend the term of the loan from 15 to 30 years. Interest on European Financial Stability Facility loans will be waived for ten years. If Greece cannot succeed under these generous concessions, there is no out in sight for the country.

Greece is set to receive 43.7 billion euro in for installments, but must meet the stringent austerity conditions. 34.4 billion euros will be advanced to the government in December. 10.8 billion euros will be allocated to  sustain the budget. Another 23.8 billion euros will be used to shore up the country’s ailing banking sector.

In a separate section of the agreement, the finance ministers agreed to return about 11 billion euros in profits accrued in their central banks which were prompted by actions taken by the European Central Bank (ECB). The IMF agreed to honor the deal after taking a different stance over the past few months. If the IMF had halted lending to Greece, the deal would not have been viable.

One portion of the deal dealt with handling hedge funds. The finance ministers agreed to deter hedge funds from manipulating interest rates by entering into a 10 billion euro program. This program will be used to purchase outstanding debt from hedge funds and private investors at $0.35 on the euro.

Samaras faces his own internal battles at home where the Greek Parliament is now controlled by a rival party, SYRIZA. This part has already renounced the deal as woefully inadequate in making Greece’s debt affordable.

Germany’s approval of the plan hinges on convincing Parliament that the country’s contributions will not be subject to a write-off. To ensure this, German funds will be earmarked into a strengthened “segregated account” that will prevent default.

The IMF came on board because it believes the extended term and favorable interest rate makes a Greek recovery possible. Some negotiators pointed out that the body would consider additional write-off if Greece continued to sustain its austerity budget. This new agreement is definitely a step in the right direction, but will come under close scrutiny from the Dutch, Finns and Germans.

 

 

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Euro – Dollar – It’s Complicated


On a day when the US posted surprisingly strong economic data and when events raised new hopes for Greece, US equity markets seized momentum and ran with it.  At the same time, German – Greece relations took their socio-economic differences to new levels of animosity. 

In Europe, Greece came up with sufficient cuts to meet the euro zone member guidelines.  The ball has transferred to the finance minister of the other 16-euro zone members who could sign an agreement for a 130-billion euro bailout on Monday.  The first tranche would commence in 30 days with a 14.5 billion euro installment that would avoid total and unstructured default.

Thursday was a busy day on all economic fronts.  Moody’s released a report indicating potential downgrades of 17 global and 114 European financial institutions.  The biggest names were Morgan Stanley and UBS but any institution with exposure to euro debt is in red alert.  Nine Danish banks were under pressure. Moody’s is analyzing long-debt holdings and other credit risks related to the euro zone and EU.

Antonio Samaras, the favorite to win the upcoming election for president in Greece was optimistic about the newest of austerity cuts.  This will be Greece’s second bailout since the original 2010 trigger.  This time around, Germany holds the key to the launch and there is bitterness from Berlin.  Originally, Chancellor Angela Merkel drew the ire of Greek traditionalists but that sentiment is now focused on Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble.  

Greece is treading with the hand that feeds them in this exchange.  If Germany votes “no” on Monday, Greece will spiral into unstructured default in 30 days.  Sometimes, it is best to swallow hard and take the medicine.  Germany controls all the buttons in this mess.

US Economic Data Encouraging

In the wake of an astounding approval rating of 10 percent, Congress appears ready to play ball on behalf of American taxpayers.  The joint House–Senate Committee charged with extending the payroll tax cut and unemployment claims is putting a compromise plan together that should pass before another Congressional week-log vacation.

The new legislation doe not include the Keystone XL Pipeline that is much ballyhooed by Republicans.  Rather the finished product will not only extend the tax cuts, but will also extend unemployment benefits for millions of Americans while preventing reductions in payment for services for Medicare patients.  Given the previous Congressional record, analysts were cautiously optimistic about final approval of the legislation.

Could Congress actually conclude legislation without senseless media battles?  In an election year?  Is it possible that even the most influential members of Congress fear for their jobs?  To many voters, whatever Congress does will be too little, too late.

Even the strongest skeptics are encouraged by the relatively strong economic data.  Today, fewer Americans filed for unemployment benefits than at any time in the past four years.  This was another unexpected result and Wall Street was watching.  Equity markets jumped over the 12,900 level as the S&P 500 hit a nine-month high.

Initial unemployment claims dropped 13,000 to an adjusted rate of 348,000, significantly lower than the projected 365,000.  This is the lowest unemployment figure since April, 2008.

More good news came from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve who reported that that its business activity index rose to 10.2 percent, soaring past January’s 7.3 percent.  Orders and shipments showed string gains.  While the region’s employment rate did not rise, the important hours worked figure showed marked improvement.

On another front, housing starts rose 1.5 percent indicating 699,00 unit annually.  Multi-unit starts led the charge and may well support a changing dynamic in homeownership.

Economists were anxious that the 4th quarter growth of 2.8 percent came from inventory sales.  There is speculation that that short-term gain would weigh heavily on the first quarter 2012 economy.

Despite dissenting opinions from the Federal Reserve’s late January meeting, Chairman Ben Bernanke downplayed the possibility of a third tranche of quantitative easing.  The Chairman sited the growing job market as a positive consideration.  The private sector has added more than 200,000 jobs in each of the last four months.  However, 23.8 million Americans are looking for work.

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Danger Ahead For Media Driven Markets


On both sides of the pond, troubling economic news and disturbing political action and inaction continue to keep global equity, commodity and currency markets swirling in the makings of a perfect storm.  In these times of financial unrest, there are no corners of the globe that are not failing economically.

In The USA Today

The Greece debt crisis and the abundance of misleading and essentially meaningless rhetoric originating in the Euro Zone are taking a toll on every marketplace.  Today, the Euro Zone took on the look of the Lehman Brothers collapse as Belgium’s Dexia SA Bank said it did not have enough cash to continue operations.  This prompted the first official bank bailout in the region since Dexia needed capital in 2008.  The condition underscored a variety of potential collapses in the Belgian – French banking sectors.

The bank holds the equivalent of 3.3 billion pounds in Greek debt.  This revelation has shaken the Euro Zone as banks are becoming increasingly hesitant to lend to each other.  This condition has left finance ministers throughout the region gasping for air and unable to resolve the heavy financial and political repercussions.

Italy Credit Rating Falls 3-Levels

As European finance ministers met in Luxembourg to develop safeguards for their banks, Moody’s cut Italy’s credit rating by 3 tiers.  The credit ratings agency described the recent bond sales as a “material increase” in the finding conditions of debt-ridden Euro Zone members.

Coupled with the announcement by Dexia, the euro fell to a nine month low before a brief rally after the finance ministers revealed they were dealing with the banking crisis.  The debt ceiling has always been a banking crisis but now the cat is officially out of the bag.  Shares of Dexia fell 22 percent.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble issued this statement, “Everyone said the big concern is that worrying developments on the financial markets will escalate into a banking crisis.” Schaeuble added that countries agreed to produce reports about each nation’s banking situation.  This is information that should have been provided by the stress tests throughout the EU.  This is the second time the region’s banking stress tests have been misleading.

Greece 2011 Debt Level Released

On the brink of financial and economic failure, Greece released a report detailing its projections about the country’s 2011 debt.  The report offered little relief for concerned markets.  Greece’s debt is expected to amount to 8.5 percent of Greece’s GDP.

The country had previously agreed to cuts to trim the deficit to 7.6 percent of GDP.  Meanwhile, the country is rife with labor strikes and public unrest.  Unemployment is staggering.  Household income is at lowest levels in years and revenue is down.

Public debt is now projected to be 161 percent of GDP.   

As the complicated Euro Zone now stands, Greece is set to default in Mid-November unless the finance ministers and politicians can come together on a reasonable bailout plan.

The EFSF rescue fund is expected to broaden its powers and its spectrum by mid-October.  The EU is awaiting final approval by all the region’s parliaments to consider leveraging the fund and to consider issuance of Euro Zone bonds.   

However, the decisions and actions of the next 30 days may well seal the fate of the Euro Zone itself and the banking sector of the region.

The U.S. Gridlock Continues

On Wednesday the protestors are expected to hit New York City and Wall Street en masse.  The question is whether or not they are hitting the places?

The movement is inspired by persons form all walks of life and of all ages.  Their focus is clearly a protest of the financial activities that have driven the country to the nation’s worst economic crisis since 1929.  However, Tea Party activists are among the many protestors and there seems confusion about why these champions of free enterprise would assault Wall Street.

The President is out stumping his jobs bill as Republicans in the House refuse to bring it to the floor.  In the Senate, the usual bickering and inaction is underway as nothing gets accomplished.

Meanwhile, the brightest minds in the House and Senate that comprise then Gang of 12 will certainly fail to accomplish their financial cuts by mid-November.  This failure will trigger a round of cuts that could turn the economy from a mild recovery to a deep recession.

The Republicans cannot even agree on a Presidential candidate and one can only wonder how the Party will react to Mitt Romney or Herman Cain, who have not signed the volatile Norquist Agreement. 

Some GOP leaders are now jumping on the anti-Norquist pledges made by many Republicans who did not consult their constituents.  There is nothing more stifling in the gridlock process than the Norquist Agreement.  

The protest movement is expected to gain momentum. Perhaps as they grow, the movement will land in Washington on the steps on Congress.  As nothing else is being accomplished by the sanctimonious politicians, who call the hallowed halls their workplace, the protest movement will likely go unnoticed by Washingtonians.

In addition to the depths of poverty now swelling through every U.S. community and affecting a large number of innocent children, Congress refuses to act.  Politicians refuse to address the deepening caste system that was created and has been sustained by Republicans and ineffective Democratic leadership.

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Euro Talks Prompt Surge


Last week IMF Director Christine Lagarde stressed that the euro zone must have a singular voice.  Mixed messages were causing large swings in all global markets. She encouraged the euro zone to speak in one, authoritative voice.  She also urged the 17-member European Union to confront the regional crisis and not avoid the painful resolution.

Euro zone finance ministers are playing it close to the vest in advance of Germany’s vote on Chancellor Merkel’s presentation to the German Parliament.  Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, was assertive stating that no new funding would be added to the EFES bailout fund.  France financial minister, Francois Baroin said there was no point in discussing the Greece dilemma until Germany had voted on the fate of Greece.

At this point, there are no winners in this situation.  Saving Greece amounts to everyone sharing the weight of the country’s massive debt.

As of Tuesday midday, equity markets around the globe were up sharply.  Surprisingly gold was also on the rise.  Commodity prices were also up.

Today, German financial ministers are meeting with Greek officials to discuss the progress of the country’s austerity cuts and new taxation programs.  Merkel is desperately searching for a means to issue the 109 billion euros in the next round of funding to Greece.

This funding will allow Greece to play another day and would temporarily hold the euro together.  However, the funding for Greece is far from a done deal.  European leaders have made these optimistic reports before and when push came to shove, the euros were not on the table. 

Most analysts wonder if Greece can get its financial house in order.  With the national debt now 150 percent of GDP, default will weigh on the country and the world again in the near future.

If the 109 billion euros are unavailable, Greece will default.  The only real question is will the default be orderly or unstructured.  An orderly default might help cut losses. 

French and German banks have more exposure than their citizens want.  As the recent bank stress tests were inconclusive, members may have to give Greece the funding to buy the time to capitalize their banks.

Angela Merkel of Germany is busy lobbying her coalition.  She is meeting stern resistance from centrist parties.  Germany’s vote is expected to happen on Thursday and Friday. The euro zone crisis has been the signature issue of Merkel’s leadership.  As a result, the Chancellor is facing a lack of political and populist support.

A high level meeting is scheduled tonight between Greek and German officials.  Merkel has assured Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou that the country will get the funding it needs to remain in the euro zone.

On July 21, 2011, the ECB announced a two part plan to save Greece.  The 109 billion euros represents the completion of that agreement.  Few believe it is enough money to save Greece.

Greece needs 9 billion euros almost immediately to meet next months debt obligations.  The popular theory is that Greece will receive the total funding package but will default in the near future.  Germany and France economic advisors said last week that banks holding large amounts of Greek debt should be prepared for a 50 percent haircut.

This means that there is pressure on all banks holding this debt to capitalize sooner rather than later.

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The Euro Continues Seven Week Gains


Following the G-20 Summit in Toronto, euro zone members continued to execute their commitment to concentrate on debt reduction as well as improving financial transparency.  While investors have awaited release of the criteria to be used in the much-publicized stress tests, the euro has shown a steady increase against the dollar.

Since falling below $1.19 for the first time in four years, the euro has made a steady push toward recovery.  On Tuesday, the currency crossed the $1.2663 threshold and appeared steady despite news that Germany, the zone’s largest manufacturer, reported an unexpected slowdown in factory orders. 

The news from Germany was outweighed by the success of the Spanish debt sale on Tuesday.  Combined with low consumer confidence projections from the States and further bad news on the employment front in the U.S. short-term confidence in the euro continues to rise. The euro has had a seven-week winning streak against the dollar.

Euro zone regulators are walking a fine line in deciding what details to release about the upcoming stress tests that will be applied to 91 of the zone’s largest financial institutions.  German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, who has become a strong spokesperson for the euro and the European Union, sees the euro in a much-improved position since the effects of the crises in Greece first evolved.

Last week, the sector was able to repay 442 billion euros n emergency loans, a feat considered unlikely just tow months ago.  The repayment only required minimal assistance from the European Central Bank. 

Stress Tests To Be Released Later in Month

European Central Bank President, Jean Claude Trichet, will face the media on Thursday.  Trichet will be under pressure to convey more information about the tests than he has been prone to do.  At present, lenders can decide what results to publish, a policy transparency advocates oppose.

German Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, has said that Germany can deal with publication of results.  Not all euro zone members are up to that task.  Chancellor Merkel affirmed Schaeuble’s pronouncement and added:

“The euro has stabilized.  It’s an important signal that banks are carrying out stress tests and that we’ll have more transparency the system.  And, it’s pleasing that, in contrast to the spring, nearly all countries in Europe are now saying we have to reduce deficits and introduce structural reforms.  Once the measures that we’ve agreed have been completely implemented it’ll mean the euro will be on stronger foundation than before the crisis.”

As the Obama Administration insisted at the G-20, the euro zone needs to not only concentrate on debt reduction but must maintain a commitment to growth.  Merkel may have it right about the zone’s positive direction in terms of austerity cuts but without growth, the zone has inherent weakness.  For this reason, many analysts project a steep fall for the euro prior to year’s end.

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German Ban Creates Euro Downdraft


On Monday, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble made a telling statement about the fate of the EU and the proposed 750 billion euro bailout package.  “We must overcome the causes of the crisis.  That means we must reduce deficits, we must strengthen the Stability and Growth Pact, and we must discuss how to strengthen growth.  We must go beyond the stage of announcements, declarations of intent and testing, and implement facts.”  While Euro Ministers failed to put finishing touches ion the proposed bailout package, Germany acted unilaterally to fulfill Schaeuble’s prophecy. 

The German government and the German electorate clearly do not support the bailout.  Inside the euro zone, rumors of dissention between two of the zone’s biggest powers, France and German, intensified. 

On Tuesday, Germany took unilateral action to ban naked short selling of euro zone government bonds, certain stocks and naked selling on credit protection backed by sovereign debt.  The Chancellor added that the euro was “in danger.”  The ban raised concerns that other regulation from other euro members would soon follow  

The shock waves were felt throughout global markets.  In overnight trading, the euro plunged below four-year lows before staging a light early-morning rally.  Many analysts project n eventual bottom on par or close to par with the dollar.

Stuart Bennett, a currency strategist at Credit Agricole said, “ The German announcement came out of the blue, without warning and there is major uncertainty about what it means…  The backdrop is a very neurotic market, which is inclined to give any euro-related news a negative spin and we have seen standard safe-haven buying of dollar and yen.”

Inasmuch as the announcement followed talks among leaders of the euro zone, it appears Germany was not satisfied with the Euro Ministers contagion plans.

Germany Looks Inward First

As the most robust economy in Europe and in the wake of elections toppling Merkel’s party, Germany’s stance should not be completely surprising.  While the bans serve to protect the country’s most important financial institutions, they also serve notice that there could well be resistance to the implementation of the bailout. 

Unlike other euro zone members, the German people do not relish in the lavish subsidies that other euro economies reap upon their populace.  Additionally, the lower euro increases the appeal of German exports.

At question is the sincerity of the political and popular will of the PIIGS to implement the austerity cuts necessary to bring deficits under control and within the stated guidelines of the EU.  As Greece prepares for a full-scale national strike on Thursday to protest the first announced wave of cuts, similar reactions seem very probable in Portugal and Spain.  The German people have a difficult time justifying paying for the lavish lifestyles of these subsidized populations.

Germany’s unilateral and independent ban seemed to catch many of the Euro Ministers who were undergoing meetings in Brussels by surprise. 

While these ministers addressed reforms for economic governance and fiscal overhauls and lauded new austerity cuts announced in Spain and Portugal, Germany had heard enough.  Tired of the political bickering and the political protectionism that distressed nations repeated under the guise of prevention of civil unrest, Germany made its move and thus sent a very clear message. 

As White House Adviser Paul Volcker said earlier, there are many difficulties coordinating the efforts of separate governments sharing a common currency.  The well-publicized rift between France and Germany will only intensify as a result of the recent actions.

At the end of the day, the reality is that the fall of the euro, which until the crisis in Greece, appeared headed to $1.50 or $1.60, is that the proposed bailout and accompanying austerity cuts only serve to service existing debt and allows no plan for economic growth.

GDP in the euro zone fell 4 percent last year.  The European Commission projects GDP will rise a mere 0.9 percent this year, well below Germany’s expected growth.

Greece Set For Bond Repayment

As Athens prepares for a dreaded national strike, the country announced that it has received 14.5 billion euros from the original 110 billion euro bailout.  8.5 billion euros will be used to fully repay 10-year bonds maturing today.

The IMF and the EU have now lent the country a total of 19.5 billion euros.  Greece’s deficit is approximately 14 percent of GDP.  The country has been mandated to trim the deficit to 3 percent by 2014.  This will change life in Greece dramatically and the population is not receiving the news peacefully.

Even though Portugal, Spain and more recently Italy have promised similar cuts, Germany views the situation differently saying that the “notorious deficit sinners” should lose voting rights in the EU.

Merkel did not hesitate to add that, “In those areas where unilateral action by Germany won’t cause any harm, we will also act on our own.”  Upon the announcement, German bunds soared as investors looked for safe havens.

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