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Republicans Reeling, Boehner Surrenders


Republicans Reeling, Boehner Surrenders

House Majority Speaker, John Boehner, supposedly the most powerful Republican politician in the country, met his match Thursday in an embarrassing non-vote that once again demonstrates the ineptitude of the conflicted GOP. Boehner did not absorb the humiliating lack of support for his Plan B solution well. To put an end to the Republicans self-destruction mode, Boehner dismissed the House for the Christmas Holiday burying his head in the sand and leaving a concerned middle class wondering “who are those guys?”

Boehner turned the reins over to the Senate and President Obama and left middle class taxpayers hanging out to dry. The conservative Tea Party refused to support Boehner in his hour of need, making very clear that there are at least three political factions working against each other in Congress. While it is easy to criticize the politics, the middle class will pay their dues for not ousting Republicans from the House and Senate in the 2012 elections. The price will be a self-inflicted recession.

It is painfully clear that the majority of Republicans are more interested in standing behind Grover Norquist and the wealthiest 0.005 percent of the voting public than they are about preserving the nation’s credit rating or preventing a recession that could make the 2008 recession pale.

If there was ever doubt about the mechanics of Washington, they should be eliminated now. The international community appears a smoothly operating engine compared to the dysfunction that threatens to take the country apart. On the heels of the tragedy in Newtownn, Ct. Americans are struggling for identity socially, economically and financially. The morale of the country is low and the state of mind for middle class America, the apparent conscience of the country, is distraught. Soon to be bombarded by irresponsible tax increases, massive layoffs and more irresponsible politics, American consumers will hit the crisis mode when the bills for holiday shopping arrive. The middle class can soon look forward to working half the year to pay new taxes and new healthcare levies.

It’s a disaster. A disaster caused by political subsidies, self-interest and the absence of moderate politicians.

Senate Republican Leader, Mitch McConnell had the audacity to call the failure of his party to embrace a real problem, the President’s fault. In another self-serving, stumbling statement from the aged Republican, the Republican leader continued the rhetoric that has accomplished nothing in three years.

The Republican Party is broken and the sooner Americans fight back, the better. This is an inexcusable breach of the public’s trust. Last Monday, Boehner and Obama came to a sweeping tentative agreement. When Boehner returned to the dark corners of the House offices, the deal fell apart rapidly.

Boehner has no control He has fallen from the most powerful Republican in Washington to the depths of an impotent fraud, like the party he represents. Wake up America! This is a disgrace and if you do not pick up the phone and ruin Christmas and New Year’s for your representative, you have no one but yourself to blame.

 

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Forex Implications of China-US Economic Codependency


The Economist recently published a special report on China and America (”Round and round it goes“). As the title suggests, the article described the increasing interdependency between the economies of the US and China. In a nutshell, China maintains an undervalued currency, in order to stimulate exports. The resulting overseas (American) demand puts upward pressure on the RMB, which China defuses by buying US Treasury securities. This results in artificially low US interest rates, causing American consumers to import more, putting even more pressure on the RMB, which is further defused by buying more US Treasuries. And the cycle continues ad nauseum.

The article focused primarily on the political side of this precarious relationship, at the expense of the financial implications. It got me thinking about the forex forces at work, and how a disruption in the cycle could have tremendous ramifications for currency markets. It’s clear that in its current form, this system keeps the Yuan artificially low, but does that means that the Dollar is also being kept artificially high.

Given the depreciation of the Dollar over the last six months, this seems almost hard to believe. Over the same time period, though, China (as well as many other Central Banks) have vastly increased their Treasury holdings. This would seem to imply that indeed, the Dollar’s fall has been slowed to some extent by the actions of China. It’s kind of a paradox; as US consumers recover their appetite for Chinese goods, the Dollar should decline. But as China responds by plowing all of those Dollars back into the US, then the net effect is zero.

Biggest holders of US Treasuries
As the Economist article intimated, there are a couple of developments that would seem to upset this equilibrium. The first would be if the Central Bank of China began diversifying its forex reserves into other currencies. By definition, however, it would be impossible for China to continue pegging the RMB to the Dollar without simultaneously buying Dollars. Thus, the day that China stops recycling its export proceeds into the US, the RMB would start to appreciate, almost instantaneously. In addition, the sudden surcease in US Treasury bond purchases would cause interest rates to rise. Both higher rates and a more expensive currency would presumably result in lower demand for Chinese exports, and hence eliminate some of the need to recycle its trade surplus back into the US. In this way, we can see that China’s Treasury purchases are actually self-fulfilling. The sooner it stops purchasing them, the sooner it will no longer need to purchase them.

I’m tempted to elaborate further on this point, but it seems that I’ve already taken it to its logical conclusion. China must recognize the dilemma that it faces, which is why it refuses to break from the status quo. If it allows the Yuan to appreciate, it will naturally face a decline in exports AND the relative value of its US Treasury holdings will decline in RMB terms. Both would be painful in the short-run. However, by refusing to concede the un-sustainability of its forex/economic policy, China is merely forestalling the inevitable. With every passing day, the adjustment will only become more painful.

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