Given that only a week has passed since the bailout of Greece was formally unveiled, it’s still too early to determine whether the plan will be success. Regardless of how it ultimately plays out, though, the bailout (not too mention the concomitant crisis) is shaping up to be THE big market mover of 2009. As investors reposition their chips, some early front-runners are emerging. It might surprise you that one such leader is the Japanese Yen.

On the surface, the Japanese Yen would seem to be an excellent candidate for shorting, especially in the context of the the Greek fiscal crisis. Its fiscal and economic fundamentals are abysmal, and by most measures, it’s debt position is among the least sustainable in the world, behind even Spain, Portugal, and the US. At the same time, the Yen has risen by an unbelievable 8% against the Euro in the last week alone, and many analysts are predicting it will emerge as one of the winners of this episode.

Why? First of all, with confidence in the Euro flagging, the Yen (and the Dollar) gain luster as the only viable reserve currencies. Regardless of what you think about Japan’s fiscal fundamentals, the longevity at the Yen means that it is inherently safer than the Euro, which may not even exist (in its current form, at least) in a few years time. Second, the current consensus is that the Euro bailout will fail, and as a result, risk tolerance is running low at the moment. With this in mind, it’s no surprise that traders are unwinding their carry trades and that the Yen – “The low-yielding currency of a deflation-prone economy of high savers…entrenched as the world’s funding currency” – has rallied.

Analysts have been quick to point out that the rest of Asia (among other regions) are on the other side of this trend. The concern is that the bailout won’t be enough to prevent a repeat credit crunch and that confidence in investments/currencies that are perceived as risky will remain low.

China could be hit especially hard. Since the Chinese Yuan is pegged to the Dollar (and even it wasn’t), it has risen by a whopping 15% against the EUro over the last six months, severely crimping exports to the EU. In addition, “Chinese exporters rely very heavily on bank letters of credit to finance their shipments…When banks have trouble borrowing money themselves — as has been happening as a result of worries about European banks’ possible losses from the region’s sovereign debt crisis — they tend to cut sharply the issuance of letters of credit for trade finance.” It’s no wonder that the Chinese stock market has tanked 21% so far in 2010, and that the Central Bank continues to delay revaluing the RMB.

Of course, if the plan turns out to be a success, than the opposite will probably obtain. “In this case…the currency of any emerging market or advanced economy exposed to the Asian region’s impressive, China-led economic growth,” will probably rally. “It could be the South Korean won, the Australian dollar, or the currencies of commodity-producing countries like Brazil.” The Japanese Yen, meanwhile, will probably be hit with a dose of reality, followed by a double dose of the carry trade.

The fiscal crisis ravaging the Euro and the Pound has sent the Dollar skyward. On the one hand, the prospect of continued uncertainty and dissolution of the Euro would seem to be an excellent harbinger for continued appreciation in the Dollar. On the other hand, it should only be a matter of time before investors recognize that the Dollar’s fiscal fundamentals are also quite weak.

Unlike during the last few years, analysts are no longer talking about (forex reserve) diversification. It was once widely predicted that the Euro would rival the Dollar for a place in the portfolios of foreign Central Banks. As expected, preferences are now shifting back in favor of the Dollar and to a lesser extent, the Yen. The Pound and Swiss Franc may have a small role, as will the “New” Euro. Over the short-term, however, Central Banks (and investors) will continue to eschew the Euro, if only due to sheer uncertainty.

Given that everything is relative in forex, investors and Central Banks only have so many options when it comes to choosing which currencies in which to denominate their portfolios. Thus, it’s understandable that a sudden crisis in the EU would buoy the Dollar. At the same time, it’s not exactly a good bet that the US isn’t destined to suffer a similar fate.

Due to extremely low short-term interest rates, most investors have been willing to accept low returns when lending to the US (by buying Treasury Securities, and indirectly by simply holding Dollars). At some point, both short-term interest rates and the rate of inflation will rise, and investors will have to re-examine their risk/reward schemes. My suspicion is that investors will demand higher yields in exchange for lending to the US.

Just like with Greece, a US fiscal crisis would probably emerge suddenly. While the US government pays lip service to the notion of balancing its budget and reducing its sovereign debt, even the most optimistic projections show a budget deficit for the next 10 years. Beyond that, the retirement of the baby boom generation and their “entitlement” payment will make it nearly impossible for the US to operate a budget surplus.

In short, the only hope is for the US economy to grow faster than the national debt. If the US economy grows at 4% per year, for example, it will have to run a budget deficit less than 4% of GDP in order to reduce its relative level of debt. On the surface, this seems like a reasonable possibility, but given trends over the last three decades (covering periods of both recession and economic boom), it doesn’t seem likely.

This is not new information. Doomsday theorists have been predicting the bankruptcy of the US for two centuries. Don’t mistake me for doing the same. Rather, I only wish to point out how ironic it is that the Dollar’s fiscal conditions are comparable (and in some ways worse) than some of the problem countries that investors are currently focusing on.

Then again, forex is relative. Some analysts have suggested that the new reserve currency will be gold, oil, and other commodities. Unfortunately, there isn’t nearly enough (liquid) supply of these materials to occupy more than a small portion of reserves. Under the current system, then, investors are pretty much stuck with the Dollar. At this point, betting to the contrary is tantamount to betting on the complete collapse of the modern financial system. A reasonable bet, perhaps, but you can forgive investors for being hesitant to embrace it.

Compared to the Euro, the Pound is Gold (figuratively speaking). Compared to everything else, well, the Pound is probably closer to linoleum. Bad geology metaphors notwithstanding, there really isn’t much to get excited about when looking at the Pound.

Let’s take the election, for example. Originally billed as a chance for a fresh start, politically, for the UK, the election has turned out to be nothing short of disastrous. Rather than producing a clear-cut victory, it has resulted in a hung Parliament. The way talks are currently shaping up, it looks like power will be shared by the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives. This is problematic,because neither party has a clear vision for dealing with the skyrocketing UK national debt; with the two parties working together, meanwhile, a compromise seems even more unlikely. “Investors are worried that a hung parliament will result in a weak government that will be unable to force through measures to reduce the UK’s high borrowing levels.”

As a result, many analysts now believe that the UK could lose its coveted AAA credit rating: “We believe that a downgrade…is more than likely since both parties agree that early expenditure cuts could harm the economy. The alternative could be that both parties agree on tax hikes to be implemented with the next budget. Both outcomes would be equally bearish for sterling.’ ”

Even aside from the imminent UK fiscal crisis, there is the fact that its economy continues to stagnate, its capital markets remain languid, and its balance of trade remains perennially mired in deficit. “Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that gap between the UK’s imports and exports hit a massive £7.5bn in March. The deficit — well ahead of an upwardly revised £6.3bn for |February — came as total imports surged £1.4bn over the month compared with a meagre £200m rise in exports.” From a fundamental standpoint, then, there is very little reason to own the Pound.

The picture is slightly more nuanced, when viewed through the lens of technical analysis. The most recent Commitment of Traders report, meanwhile, has showed short interest in the Pound building to record levels. In addition, the ratio of long/short positions is approaching 5:1. Some analysts believe this is inherently unsustainable, and that as net positions become more lopsided, a sharp reversal becomes even more likely. Then again, some analysts had the same theory about the Euro, which was solidly disproved after the short-squeeze rally was soon followed by a steady decline and a re-accumulation of short positions.

Other technical analysts are waiting to see where the Pound moves in the near-term before placing their bets. ” ‘Last week the market eroded the 15-month uptrend from the January 2009 low at $1.3500′…the $1.4255 Fibonacci level is the last defence for the pound ahead of the $1.3500 2009 low. For the downside pressure to be taken off, key resistance at $1.5055, the May 10 high, would need to break.’ ” The Pound is hovering dangerously close to a number of psychologically important levels. If it breaches $1.40, it would signal a 5-year low. Consider also that the Pound last touched $1.38 in 2001 and $1.35 in 1987.

To be fair, the Pound has hovered around $1.50 for most of the last 20 years, so its current level against the Dollar is not that low, relatively speaking. If investors come to their senses, and realize that the likelihood of UK sovereign default is probably not any higher than the US, and the coalition government is able to produce a convincing plan for reducing the deficit, then the Pound could bounce back. If the safe-haven mentality remains in force, however, the Pound will continue to be one of the big losers.

The rally in emerging markets that I wrote about in April is showing no sign of abating. The MSCI emerging market stocks index is back to its pre-crisis level, while the EMBI+ emerging market bond index has surged to a record high. While no such index (that I know of) exists for emerging market currencies, one can be quite certain that at the very least, it too would also have returned to its pre-crisis level.

The Greek fiscal crisis, far from discouraging risk-averse investors from emerging markets, appears to instead be spurring them closer. From a comparative standpoint, emerging market governments are in much better shape than their industrialized counterparts, to say nothing of Greece. Credit ratings on a handful of emerging market debt issues are gradually being raised, whereas Greece was downgraded to junk status. Summarized one investor: “This is a group of countries with relatively strong balance sheets offering attractive levels of yield.”

It’s no wonder then that capital inflows into emerging market debt has already set an annual record (for 2010), despite the fact that we are only four months into the year! “The World Bank predicts as much as $800 billion in global capital flows this year, compared with about an annualized $450 billion to developing economies in the second half of 2009.” In addition, whereas institutional investors previously insisted on funding only those issues that were denominated in foreign currency (such as Dollars or Euros), now they seem to have a preference for so-called local currency debt. According to one emerging markets fund manager, “We expect local currency to be our biggest theme going forward.”

The real story here, however, is less the growing investor interest in emerging markets (which is now well established), and more the growing ambivalence of emerging markets. No doubt grateful to be attracting record sums of capital at lower-than-ever interest rates, emerging market governments are nonetheless unhappy about the resulting currency appreciation.

Taiwan has emerged as the unlikely voice of emerging markets on this issue. Its Central Bank recently “asked 65 banks for details of their foreign-currency lending to make sure exporters and importers aren’t using the loans to speculate on the island’s dollar,” and urged its peers to “adjust their monetary policies to address the disorderly movements of exchange rates.”

It doesn’t need to prod too hard, however, since a handful of Central Banks have either already intervened or are seriously considering intervention. Last month, Poland intervened by selling the Zloty against the Dollar. The Central Bank of South Africa cut interest rates by 50 basis points in March, despite surging inflation. Brazil continues to hold auctions to buy Dollars on the spot market, while India mulls implementing some form of a Tobin tax on currency transactions.

Not long ago, such measures would have been criticized as protectionist and against liberal, free-market principles. Not anymore. The International Monetary Funds (IMF), recently “urged developing nations to consider using taxes and regulation to moderate vast inflows of capital so they don’t produce asset bubbles and other financial calamities.” Private-sector economists agree, with Standard Chartered Bank arguing that “Emerging markets need to take ‘urgent action’ on the surge of liquidity and capital flowing into their economies because they could spur inflation and trigger another crisis,” much like “excess liquidity contributed to problems in the Western developed economies ahead of the financial crisis.”

In short, emerging markets have the green light to go ahead and stop their currencies from appreciating. But will they act on it?

Ever since March 2009, the relationship between the dollar and U.S. equities has behaved like similar ends of a magnet. When equities rose, the dollar fell and vice versa. Analysts blamed the role of the government’s lenient credit policy for this inconsistency.

Now, other factors have come into play. The dollar and equities seem to be reacting similarly to national and global economic events. On the national scene, there are signs that employment is stable, trending upwards and definitely has the attention of the Obama Administration.

While the necessary spirit of cooperation is at record lows in Washington, there appears a hint of progress.  The $15 billion jobs bill is progress and consumer spending is on the rise. Meanwhile, more small businesses have indicated a willingness to hire. 

The Federal Reserve had such favorable credit terms that the effect was to drive the dollar down and equities up. Basically, investors were using a currency that cost virtually nothing to acquire undervalued equities. It may have been and still may be a false economy, but it stemmed the tide at a critical time.

With recent statements from Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, the future of the dollar looks good. Bernanke has outlined a series of actions designed to strengthen the currency. Interest rate hikes, a cessation of purchasing distresses assets and certain progressive credit reforms are all positive steps for the dollar.

Timing is Everything

The Fed’s changes have been timely. As the euro zone tries to untangle the financial chaos in Greece, the euro has suffered a significant downturn. In 2010, the euro has dropped 4.8 percent against the dollar and a whopping 7.6 percent against the yen.

On Monday, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said there are plans to rescue Greece. He added that if the fiscal crisis in Greece worsened the euro would be hurt. Currency trading has been light as investors are waiting and watching Prime Minister Papandreou’s attempts to control the damage.

But, Greece may well be just the first block in the tenable euro zone to tumble. Spain may be next with Italy, Portugal and Ireland in the wings. With talk of more quantitative easing in Great Britain and a fair amount of intense disagreement between the liberal and conservative factions in England, the pound is wavering under the pressure.

Australian and New Zealand dollars rose favorably against the dollar on Monday.

In 2010, the S&P 500 is up 2 percent. The dollar has risen 3 percent. Helping the equities markets are a new infusion of merger and acquisition activity. The Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) is a highly regarded index indicating markets attitudes. The VIX has fallen below 18 percent and is trending towards the year’s low.

As the Oracle of Omaha suggested, things are looking up and it is a good time to invest, in the dollar and in equities.

The 16-nation euro zone is grappling with the fiscal crisis in Greece. The country’s deep debt level has weighed heavily on both the euro and the British pound.

The stakes are high and may well get higher.  According to an article in the Financial Times authored by billionaire investor George Soros, Greece is just one of several European economies in dire straits. The combined fiscal unrest in Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland will far outdistance the relatively minor problem in Greece.

Meanwhile, the pound is in turmoil. Amidst calls for more quantitative easing and political imbalances, the pound has dipped sharply against other world currencies, including the dollar. Advances in support for the Labor Party have caused concern among the country’s conservatives.

At the root of the problem in Greece is a mammoth 2009 deficit amounting to more than 12.7 percent of GDP. The cap for the EU members is 3 percent. Despite Greece’s pledge to reduce the budget deficit to 8.7 percent in 2010, the more stable European nations are publicly hesitant to come to the socialist government’s aid.

Germany Talking Tough

Greece has outlined several unpopular national cost-cutting measures. These preliminary and immediate steps include pay freezes, trimming of income supplements in the public sector, tax increases, an aggressive stance against tax evasion, increase in fuel duty taxes, raising the nation’s retirement age and cuts in all forms of public spending. The announcement of these measures led to a 24-hour national work strike.

Prime Minister George Papandreou has been considering additional measures and will need to make additional concessions to secure outside help. The still popular Prime Minister is said to be weighing a Value Added Tax, a luxury goods tax, a more aggressive fuel duty tax, a freeze in public pensions and even deeper public spending cuts.

There are several possible remedies for the Greek – EU situation. The EU ministers are scheduled to consider the Greek consolidation plan on March 16^th. The clock is ticking as Greece needs to reorganize about 25 billion euros or $33.97 billion by late May.

The European Union’s biggest economy is Germany. Public statements between the two nations have been tense, at best. Prime Minister Papandreou is scheduled to meet with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin on Friday.

Publicly, Merkel insists that the problems in Greece belong to Greece. The Chancellor has been resolute in turning away any assurance that German aid stood ready. Public sentiment in Germany, Luxembourg and the Netherlands is strongly opposed to the use of tax revenue to bail out a loosely regulated economy. Germany does not want to set a precedent for bailing out failing European economies.

Currently, Greece pays 3 percentage points above the German bond yields to borrow in capital markets. Last week, Greece’s borrowing costs hit their lowest level since mid February. The decrease appears to be based upon promised tax increases.

European Central Bank Joins EU in Greece Monday

European Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner, Olli Rehn, and European Bank Chief Economist, Juergen Stark, met with top Greek economists on Monday. The purpose was to specify all necessary measures needed to trim 4 percent off the deficit by the end of 2010.

Behind the public scene, euro zone governments are furiously examining all possible measures to support the ailing nation with international bond markets. Merkel hinted as much when the Chancellor declared that the EU treaty did not include provisions to eliminate the guarantee of Greek debt through state-owned institutions.

French Economy Minister, Christine Lagarde has said that France was studying possible solutions to the Greek problem. Lagarde suggested a private-public venture might be the best remedy.

The Office of Debt Management in Greece has not released details of an expected bond auction. Most likely, this offering will not take place until all the government’s austerity measures are in motion.

A successful auction could ease the need for a severe rescue plan. To encourage investors, a preliminary interest rate of 7 percent is projected. If this auction fails, then 911 calls will be on the street and the euro will eel even more pressure. The stakes are indeed very high indeed in Greece and throughout the euro zone.

With this post, I want to try to clarify the Greek fiscal crisis. The problem is that it’s not clear exactly how serious the problem is, because most of the media coverage of the crisis has been directed towards the financial markets’ perception of it, rather than its underlying fundamentals. In the end, I think it’s important to understand both.

The Financial Times published a great timeline that shows perception and reality side-by-side. While there were certainly other important developments that bear in Greece’s fiscal position (in addition to those listed below), you can see that financial markets are basically making their own reality. For example, there was hardly a response to the October announcement that Greece’s budget deficit would be 12.7%, which was 5% higher than earlier estimates. In fact, the markets only became bearish on Greek debt after it the government announced that it would try to bring the debt down to 9.4% through various measures.

Apologists for the markets would be right to wonder why investors should be inclined to believe the government of Greece when it said it could control the budget deficit. Fair enough. Still, one has to wonder why the markets suddenly started worrying about Greece’s fiscal problems, when only a couple months ago, the possibility of a whopping 12.7% budget deficit barely caused investors to blink. Besides, the credit crisis has been raging since 2008, which means the markets have had plenty of time to digest the implications of recession for Greece’s fiscal position.

These days, where is a financial crisis, chances are derivatives are not far removed. As credit default swap spreads (i.e. the cost of insuring against default by Greece on its loan obligations) have risen, so have concerns that this is a bona fide crisis. “It’s like the tail wagging the dog…There is a knock-on effect, as underlying positions begin to seem riskier, triggering risk models and forcing portfolio managers to sell Greek bonds,” said one portfolio manager. From this perspective, it almost looks like this “crisis” is being completely manufactured by speculators for the sake of profit. Summarized another analyst, “It’s like buying fire insurance on your neighbor’s house — you create an incentive to burn down the house.”

To be fair, Greece also played a role in derivatives speculation, and on some level, it was even more nefarious than the speculators. Assisted by Goldman Sachs (who is now betting on Greek default [how un-ironic that is!]), Greece entered into a series of swap agreements last decade, which it used to conceal its true debt burden. “By using an historical exchange rate that didn’t accurately denote the market value of the euro, Goldman effectively advanced Greece a €2.8 billion loan. Under EU accounting rules—which were tightened in 2008—Greece wasn’t obliged to include the loan in overall public debt on its books.” Now that those transactions have been uncovered and the truth is coming to light, financial markets are rightly re-evaluating the risk of further lending to Greece.

There is no question that Greece’s debt problems are serious. As to whether labeling it a crisis is necessary, that depends on your standards. Greece ranks near the top of the list on a variety of individual “debt sustainability” criteria. At 94.6% of GDP, it’s net debt is among the highest in the world. Its projected 2010 budget deficit is also high, though not the highest. Its cost of borrowing is also significantly higher than projected GDP growth, which means that net debt will continue to grow until a budget surplus can be produced. When you average these measures together, it appears that Greece’s debt problems are the most unsustainable of any country in the world. But this is hardly news.

On the other hand, the weighted average of the maturity of Greek debt is 7.7 years, well above average, and plenty of time (relatively) for Greek to sort through this mess and secure new lenders. Towards the latter end, it has hired a former bond trader to head its debt management agency. In order to improve its fiscal position, it has announced a series of austerity measures, including budget cuts, tax increases, wage cuts for public-sector employees, and stricter laws against tax evasion.

At this point, a ratings downgrade looks inevitable, and some analysts think the crisis has already become self-fulfilling. As borrowing costs rise, it only makes it more likely that Greek will default, which causes rates to rise further, and so on. On the other hand, Greek politicians are being forthright about their position (”Greece’s finance minister, George Papaconstantinou, remarked this week: ‘People think we are in a terrible mess. And we are.’ “) and have a plan for rectifying the situation. There is cause for skepticism here, but also for hope. And that goes not just for Greece, but also for the Euro.